WASHINGTON, Aug. 1 (DC Times Online) — The National Hurricane Center’s Aug. 1 Tropical Weather Outlook forecast no tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico during the following seven days. For people along the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, the practical message is simple: keep monitoring official forecasts, but there was no immediate tropical threat identified in that outlook.
The quiet pattern comes as El Niño strengthens in the Pacific. That climate pattern can create stronger winds high above the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical thunderstorms to organize. Saharan dust and dry air are adding another obstacle, even though ocean temperatures in parts of the Atlantic remain warm enough to support development.
Why El Niño matters
El Niño is a recurring warming of ocean water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It can affect weather far from the Pacific, including the Atlantic hurricane basin.
During this event, the upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic have been hostile to storm formation, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and the FOX Forecast Center. The stronger winds can produce vertical wind shear — a change in wind speed or direction with height. Wind shear can tilt or tear apart a developing storm before it becomes organized.
The Climate Prediction Center has projected that this El Niño could become one of the strongest events observed since 1950. Other reports have described it as potentially record-setting, but the supplied official forecasts do not establish a final ranking.
What is happening off Africa?
Several tropical waves — areas of unsettled weather that move westward from Africa — were moving into the Atlantic’s Main Development Region. That region stretches from the west coast of Africa toward the Caribbean and is a common starting point for long-lived Atlantic hurricanes.
The waves were not storms, and their presence alone did not mean that a hurricane was likely. The FOX Forecast Center said their chances depended on several factors, including wind shear, the amount of Saharan dust and dry air, and water temperatures.
Saharan dust can reduce thunderstorm activity by bringing dry, stable air into the tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center outlook described no areas of interest and no meaningful tropical development in the near term, according to the outlook issued Thursday evening and summarized in the supplied coverage.
Does warm water change the forecast?
Warm ocean water supplies energy to tropical systems, so Atlantic temperatures can favor development. But warm water is only one part of the equation. The FOX Forecast Center said the influence of warm water was being offset by El Niño-related winds and other unfavorable conditions.
Development also can occur closer to the United States, including in the Gulf of Mexico or near the Southeast coast. Those systems may form in a different environment from waves crossing the Main Development Region, which is why a quiet Atlantic does not eliminate the need to watch official forecasts.
How unusual is the slow start?
The FOX Forecast Center reported two named storms by July 31, including one in June and one in July. Other reports described the season as having one tropical storm after its first month, so the supplied accounts do not fully reconcile their storm totals. In either case, the season had been less active than many preseason forecasts suggested.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts cited in the supplied coverage called for different totals for the full season. NOAA projected eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. Colorado State forecast 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. AccuWeather forecast eight to 14 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
A slow start does not determine the final season total. Atlantic activity often changes later in the season, and conditions can shift quickly. Forecast agencies also continued to weigh the strengthening El Niño against warm Atlantic waters.
What should residents do now?
With no tropical activity forecast in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf during the National Hurricane Center’s next seven-day window, there was no storm-specific evacuation or emergency action identified in the supplied information.
Residents in hurricane-prone parts of the United States should still use the quiet period to review evacuation routes, check emergency supplies, confirm how they will receive alerts and follow the National Hurricane Center and local emergency-management officials. A quiet outlook is a short-term forecast, not a guarantee that the rest of the season will remain quiet.
